I came across a football trading system the other day which advocates laying favourite teams with very low odds prior to kick-off, and then backing them 20 minutes into the match, when the odds will have risen if the favourite hasn't scored. If the favourite does score, you immediately back it to cut your losses, even though you are taking a definite loss.

As the system's author concedes, favourites often do score in the first 20 minutes. I am therefore unsure whether this system produces long-term profits. What do you all think?

Thanks in advance.

Regards

Jeff

Sounds promising. Personally what I'd do is;

i) Get hold of as much statistical evidence as I can and

ii) See if there's any other variable that you can add into the mix to filter out those games when you're more likely to get hurt (no ida what that is - local derbies, favourite away, fave playing after a eurpoean game or whatever).

iii) Look for leagues where the bookies don't cover it all so closely (English lower leagues maybe?). Any decent info you have there will be worth more (as opposed to say updates on Drogba's fitness, which everyone will have and will likely be built into the price).

I know it's tempting to say that bookies are usually well off for a reason, but I firmly believe that when you step outside the mainstream in sports betting there's value to be had as stuff is sometimes almost impossible to make a sensible market in.

Good luck - keep us updated.

GJ

Thanks.

What I find difficult is getting reliable data; I wouldn't know where to begin looking for the stats I would need to assess this system's effectiveness. With horse racing, there are plenty of databases of results going back years , but with many sports there seems to be a lack of data on which to form a proper assessment of a system.

Greyhound racing is a good case in point. There are few books on greyhound betting, and I cannot find a database that tells you, for example, what profit or loss you would have made over the last 2 years if you had backed all dogs running in Trap 6 at Monmore who had yet to win a race.

Regards

Jeff