:lol: :lol: its frightening that we trade the markets isnt it! :lol:

hope you have a good trading day.

Not at all - would be more frightening if I traded sports in serious dough. calculations easier in the markets

GJ

Hi folks, and thanks again for your persistence. However, I thinks we have strayed from the objective a bit, although some worthwhile angles have been explored.

I am still trying figure it out myself.

Just to confirm:

My maximum available cash (no credit allowed) is £10,000.

To benefit from the arbitrage I need to BACK the bet offered at 6/1 and
LAY the bet offered at 3/1. This is 3/1 to back it, so I will be accepting the liability on someone backing at 3/1.

There is a clear arbitrage opportunity presented by the difference in odds offered for the same bet.
I need to deposit any, and the full, potential loss on each bet.

Searchlight: I have just noticed that your formula is to be used in the case of apportioning the cash to BACKING both selections as opposed to BACKING and LAYING to benefit from the arbitrage. But the formula is still useful for that purpose in the future. Thanks.

I think in all honesty I have overcomplicated a straightforward problem.

GJ: I have been working from your example:

If Owen scores, you make (including your original stake) £5k * 7 = £10k
So you could lay bets such that this is your downside. i.e. £35k / 4 = £8,750

Hence: £10k / 7 = £1429 stake to back with
(£10k-£1429) / 3 = £2857 offer to lay a bet of this size - potential liability 3* £2857 = £8521

£1429 + £8521 = £10,000

Note: Divide by 3 not 4 as backer stake counts as 1. I’m liable for 3. (Hence 3/1)

Still trying....confusing myself further..... how can I lock in a profit?? I'm going for a beer.

Hi The wolf2222,
You think you confused? you have to see the state I am in. LOL
Now anything i say should be taken with the handful of salt.:lol:
Yes you are correct about the formula I gave. it has to be two opposing outcomes of a event in order to make a guaranteed profit. I don't know why, but i was thinking Owen scoring, not scoring kind of a scenario.
Although I am not familiar with the laying bets, but as i understand it; you(the layer)
name the odds... right?
if so why you are trying the copy the odd of somebody? create one for yourself. 2/1 for example.:cheesy:
What really I am trying to say is , if you can lay bets, you can always create a arbitrage by offering lower odds than you saw elsewhere.I stress the lower. that way you can raise the money to bet on the higher odd you saw elsewhere.Practically you would be betting with other people's money, zero risk to you. I bet you, the guy who layed 4/1 was raising money to bet on 7/1.

EXAMPLE: you layed 4/1 and collected £1000 put that money on 7/1 (owen scoring)
IF Owen scores you make a profit £3000
IF not you had a fun.
If you believe you can find somebody to take your odds while there is a tens of better odds elsewhere you should do this for a living. And believe you me there is a around over 75000 people in this forum alone will follow you.:lol: :lol:
Last suggestion; To increase the likelihood of you winning offer and put your money on Owen not scoring.:lol: :lol:

Regards,

searchlight

I think I understand this laying bit!

you get odds of 6/1.
you offer odds of 3/1 to others. I am assuming this is same as betting 1/3 for it to lose.

odds: 6/1 and 1/3.
normalise, ie, get same "denominator".
18/3 and 1/3. total units = (18 + 3 + 1 + 3) = 25 units.

(18 + 3) = 21 / 25 * 10,000 = 8,400.
(1 + 3) = 4 / 25 * 10,000 = 1,600.

you are betting 1,600 for horse to win.
you are betting 1/3 for horse to lose.
you offer 8,400 as potential winnings to others by offering 3/1.
you can therefore "collect" 2,800 in winnings (others bettors stakes) if horse loses. (8,400 / 3).

if horse wins: you collect (1,600 * 7) = 11,200.
if horse loses: you collect (8,400 * 4/3); ie, your deposited risk comes back, PLUS the bets of 2,800 = 11,200.

you risked 10,000 to collect 11,200; net result = 1,200.

this had better be right! I will finally get some sleep.

Hi Trendie,
if he has collected 2800 0n 3/1 his liability is 8400+2800=11200
he has to borrow £1200 to cover it let alone bet on the 7/1.:lol:
regards,
searchlight

'Hi Trendie,
if he has collected 2800 0n 3/1 his liability is 8400+2800=11200
he has to borrow £1200 to cover it let alone bet on the 7/1.
regards,
searchlight'

The 'backer' has to deposit £2,800 as the stake. I would have to deposit £8400 to cover my potential liability (his potential profit)

I would then have a remainder of £1600 to back the selection at 6/1

Hi,
Yes, absolutely right. Now first thing in the morning I will apply for a job at the Northern Rock. I think I am better qualified then Trendie. :lol:
Regards,
Searchlight