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Income from betting exchanges
I and a few others have been watching the Brimardon thread and the discussion has wandered toward general alternatives to enhance our "normal" trading.
I have played on and off for a few years on the technical (as opposed to form analysis) backing and laying of horses on the betting exchanges, e.g. Betfair. Up until very recently I was spectacularly unsuccessful and have been sucker to many overpriced schemes that turn out to be useless! The exception is my current "information provider" who has given impressive returns on my modest Betfair account. Early days as I have only been subscribed for 6 weeks but I will post results. As I am now trading Eruopean stocks and indicies more or less full time I now have the time (no more full full time job :-) to look again at income from the sport of kings. In the Brimardon thread I raised the topic of laying horses (hoping horses will loose) which is acting as a traditional bookmaker. I am sure there is money to be made? Rgsharp posted an interesting reply and raised the topic of arbitrage. If anyone has knowledge of the subject of arbitrage or indeed anything related to making income from laying perhaps we could share our experiences and complement our trading income. Cheers Dave |
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Yes it is possible but to make best use of this you would need to use the Betfair API and have software that allows the simultaneous placing of two bets. This is hugely under utilised because there are very few developers who have software that can do this. However, using the Betfair API allows you to place simultaneous bets in fractions of a second which gives a major edge over other users of Betfair. You would need to know that you can make good money doing this because the cost of subscription to using the API is not cheap.
On another thread I had people questionning my knowledge and ability in this area which is fine but I have since decided that I am not prepared to say any more about this other than very good money can be made and that I do have a reasonable ability to write software applications but would not consider doing so for commercial purposes. Paul |
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Hi Paul,
Interesting, I will look at API but I personally do not have the knowledge or time to write such programs. Perhaps you would be kind enough to tell us (without divulging your own hard work) why the almost instantaneous placing of bets is advantageous. Dave |
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I've been using Betfair for a year or so, and with increasing interest. I'm not very computer-literate at all, but it's clear even to me (mostly from watching events "in-running" closely) that there must be many good opportunities for almost-guaranteed (or at least very high probability) profits for someone with suitable software to be able to take advantage of those very frequent situations in which I've found myself thinking "I wish I could get two bets on at the same time"!
I'm sure I'm among the many people dismayed at how you were insulted by an idiot in another thread, Paul (it seems to be increasingly common at this site, not that that makes it any more tolerable, of course), but for what it's worth (if anything, now) many of us would be most interested if you do ever decide to say a little more. |
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Well said Sir,
I read the posts you referenced and that is one of the reasons I started this one. I too spend a fortune of a system that simply did not work for me, I lost money. Fine thats life but, as they say, once bitten... I will never return to an outfit that let me down. So Trader333, it seems we have a group of open minded people here. At least give us some pointers. Dave |
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Short of time this weekend so will return with more detail when I can. API is good but you do not need it.
I will run as full an explanation as I can and field questions. I have seen this in practice and worked it myself, needs liquidity so probably only work well with Betfair. Richard. |
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The advantage of using software that uses the Betfair API is that it can be programmed to optimise an arbitrage bet almost instantly and then place the bets simultaneously and (this is the important bit), optimise the amount per bet placed. Whilst this may well be possible without using the API it would always take much longer and you could always get caught with having placed one part of your arbitrage bet but not the other. This is of course unless Richard has some other way of doing it which I am unaware of ? That said arbitrage opportunities are not always present but you can use Betfair with traditional trading techniques (which again in my view), software is better placed to make the most of from an opportunity.
Paul |
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Update as promised on racingtowin:
Started 1 Feb on 30 day free trial, continued on paying basis (weekly) 1 March. I started backing and laying 1 March but quickly decided to opt for back only using 3m method. Betting bank started with £1250 now stands at £3740. I have not backed consistently as I was away for almost 10 days. I am NOT plugging this outfit as I am very sceptical of tips services, more so than many but this one seems to be getting it right so far. Saturday and Sunday showed 6 successes from 11, I did not back as the weekend is for relaxing not working. Regarding arbs, I have glanced at my old files and I remember why I gave it up: The stakes required to give a reasonable return are very high. I also agree with Paul's comment that it is easy to miss the opportunities unless you are quick. Some websites select the opportunities for you but it seems that the good ones have already gone when the site updates them. E.g. betbrain.com Maybe the exchanges offer better returns. As of today theri best "surebet" is tennis and offers a return of 1.94%. Thats 20 quid on a grand! Personally I am looking for a much better return. |
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An interesting site with lots of info on arbs together with a subscription service: oddsandbets.com
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Paul & Dave both have a point when it comes to arbing, although I believe the two issues are related.Before the advent of API, BOTS, automated prog.s (call em what you will) you could easily trade horse arbs on Betfair at 10/15% profit; assuming back bet placed first. eg. back £100 at 5.0 lay £110 at 4.5, profit = £10/£15. The auto. progs are soaking up all the price gaps, resulting in lots of trades making a few pence, sometimes pounds, but with a licence fee liabilty of £100 - £150 per month, not very lucrative.
With regards the horses it needs more imagination, such as backing the Racing Post Pricewise horse while the price is guaranteed by a bookmaker and then laying back on Betfair. Better still lay the horse you think must likely to be increased in price in the same race as the Pricewise selection (Bookies balance the book) and then bet back. Some people follow one of the big tipsters(winnigline, fantastic forecasts, etc. purely to arb the selection, their influence being so large it invariably drags a price down by a few points, sometimes a lot. Other sports are another issue. Arbs often exsists between conventional bets and spread bets on the same market. Especialy 3 outcome events such as boxing, football, baseball etc. Arbs often exsist between spread firms on markets and for fear of being accused of colluding they keep them open for a while (obviously thet know they are there). Trouble is they severly reduce the stake they will accept (say £50.00 a point when normaly they would have gone £500. a point, shame :-( I used to work a sort of arb on horses before Betting Exchanges were invented. The lay part being achieved with a Spread Bet. There is still some good milage in this system if operated with care; more on that later. I also invented a numerical way of spread betting greyhounds which can also make good money; more on that another time. There is a nice way to make virtualy guaranteed money on Black Jack with little risk (100/200% returns are common). At the moment I am working on a Poker system. Perhaps by all sharing we can compare experiances and refine some strategies ? Richard... |
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