So would I, but I'm not sure I could contribute much to it! We used to use what one would call now a precursor to a Carlson-style system: I'm sure it will be basically what's in the books by Bryce Carlson. Please bear in mind it's not a game I've played seriously for 20 years.

It was a 5-deck game that we used to beat in Germany. I'm going back a long way. Wonderful casino overlooking Lake Constanz about a mile from the Swiss border where (astonishingly) they never quite banned us. We were using shuffle-tracking and all sorts of things like this, not only card-counting. I'm pretty sure that nowadays one would not be able to do most of what we used to do: I imagine that these days the first time you draw a card to a pair of Aces without splitting them, a polite but firm gentleman will ask you rather apologetically to leave at the end of the shoe.

Wow, the thread has been busy over the weekend, very interesting posts from all.
I now have a reply from RTW regarding the 3M staking plan, special interest to Roberto and I hope others:
"If you are betting one point per race, splitting your stake between several horses, then you can only exceed the amount of your bank by betting on more than 20 races a day.

As we usually have no more than three or four 3M bets that should not happen.

If you vary the amount of your stake per race by dividing a bank by the number of races then you will upsetting the probabilities of recovering losses by winning bets. The 3m Method relies on consistent staking per race over time.

The only alternative we would recommend is using a fixed percentage of the total bank per bet.

e.g. 10% of your bank on a race, then adjust the next race stake to equal 10% of your new bank, whether it is now higher or lower than the last total."

For me that makes only partial sense but as they are the experts and I am paying for their advice I will follow it.
The reason I say it only makes partial sense is that I would asume 3 selections in a race has a greater probablility of giving a return that 1.
If my assumption is correct then I would further assume that it is reasonable to stake more on mutilple selection races.
For me the % method fits easier (more like traditional trading) with my mentality so that is what I will use. Not sure it I will vary bets race to race but certainly day to day. Personally I think I will use 10% on single selection, 12% on 2 and 15% on 3.

I actually think the major point is to use a "consistent plan" that can adapt to the inevitable loosing runs.

Well done Richard on the National!

I am also very wary of the Brimadon claims(see my posts), yes I have read the posts and I too refrained from posting a reply as I have no desire to enter into arguements.

FTSE intraday bets
It is not easy! Play with minimum stakes until we can perfect a strategy.

Omnitrader and Ed Downs
I use OT 2005 and also Signal Traders daily alerts (they can do it on email if you prefer) and am satisfied with both. OT2005 gives signals that I do not always agree with but it certailny helps finding potential trades. Signal trader have a profile specifically for the UK market. Ask them or I can send it to you.
I currently do not trade Downs;s DOW signals but have in the recent past and they seem to work.
One minor problem with the ST alerts is that some of them are small caps and either have impractical spreads or are simply not quoted.

A good trading & betting week to all.

Thanks very much for passing this on, Dave. I have one problem with it, though ...

Well that's wrong for a start, isn't it? That would be right if they'd advised using a 20-point bank (5% staking), surely? But they've actually advised a 10-point bank (10% staking). (My guess is that whoever replied to your email was momentarily confused between their "back to win" system and their "3M system".)

That's clearly right.

I see ... that was what I thought they meant in the first place. I've been doing that all the time, except that I'm now working at 6% rather than the 10% they advised. (And it sounds as if they are slightly confused themselves about that, as observed above!).

That principle will be true sometimes; not always. There'll be many times that 2 selections will have a greater probability of a win than 3, for instance. Two short-ish joint favourites will surely be a higher probability than 3 runners at prices like 4.5, 5.5 and 7 (such as we've had the other day)?

Interesting ... I wish you well with that: my guess is that if all goes well you'll do better than I will, but I think you're taking a bigger chance of an accident, also. One unlucky day with (say) 6 races would almost destroy your bank, no? Maybe I'm being too conservative, though: time will tell.

Have a good week with horses and trades!

No problem, Share and share alike, that's the purpose of these boards, no?



100% correct

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roberto Interesting ... I wish you well with that: my guess is that if all goes well you'll do better than I will, but I think you're taking a bigger chance of an accident, also. One unlucky day with (say) 6 races would almost destroy your bank, no? Maybe I'm being too conservative, though: time will tell.

Yes, I do risk destruction but I am now at the stage where I am on "won money" so I can afford a little recklessness. Anyway using the % method it always protects except in the case of a major wipeout. I do not think you are being overly cautious, risk management is a very personal thing and my only comment would be that as long as you have risk management in place that is fine.



PS, Think I have the quote tool sorted?



On another subject I have just come across your very interesting posts on Ross hooks. That is much more to my interest. Unless RTW prove to be stunningly successful!

Hi,
First post here! I can recommend a laying tipping service for betfair. I have used it for about 2 months and they do exactly as they say. You need quite a large bank to work with to make decent money (as with all laying on horses). £2K bank will make about £2k profit a month.
Anyway. Just my 2 peneth there. I actually came here to see if I could get my head round spread betting on one of the markets!

Hi Richt71,
Thanks for the info. Do you want to tell us some more details, like who and some past results.

If you go to the menu "search" you will find lots of info on SB strategies all good helpful stuff.

Dave

Hi Dave,
Well I've tried a few laying systems. Some offer high percentage of wins but kill your bank when you have a winner (or loser for you!). These guys are steady. They email you ,mid morning with a horse to lay on the exchanges. They send 6 days a week IF they have a horse. Usually 20 tips per month on average with 1/2 winners (losers to you) per month.
As I say it's worked for me but to make decent money you do need a large bank to start with or start small and roll your profits.
Site is http://www.lay2profit.com. They have proofed results for last 2 months to independant racing sites. The last 4 months are on their site. I can only confirm last 2 months though.
Hope that helps? And just to add Dave. I am nothing to do with them!

Rich

Hello Rich, Thanks for mentioning the link above. I certainly wasn't aware of them. I've used a few different laying services but never yet made profits from one. It strikes me that it's absolutely essential to be able to do considerably better than SP. In theory one can do so on the betting exchanges, of course; but in practice it can require a lot of time and attention.

Without wanting to pour any scorn on Lay2Profit, of whom I know nothing, I must say that their few months' results really ring some alarm bells for me:-

First, some of the bets are at enormous odds of 10/1 or so. If they give about 20 bets per month but have two losers at 10/1, that's the end of that month's profits ... which goes to show why, _especially_ with laying services, you need a _very_ long period of results (preferably independently verified, of course) before you start drawing any conclusions!

Secondly, they state on their website "If the horse wins as a consequence of there being a significant non-runner, we reserve the right to exclude this selection from our results." This is, of course, the nightmare (but not particularly unusual!) scenario of laying. You lay a favourite at a price better than SP, and then after that there's a horse withdrawn which was the one you were hoping would beat "yours". As the saying goes, "it only happens all the time". But if these people are going to exclude it from their results when it happens, what does that make their claimed results worth?! They are actually stating openly that sometimes they lay a horse, it wins the race, and then they exclude it from their published results! We can all do that.

I was very surprised to see this (though on a more charitable note it could, admittedly, be argued that they are honest to mention that their "results" are not actually results as one might understand the word).

And having said (or should I say "vented"? ) all that, I wish you very well with it, and I'll certainly follow with interest now that you've mentioned it.

York, you say? There must be some very good racing there ... when the whole city isn't all flooded out?

That would be the Advanced Omega II System (Bryce Carlson, Blackjack for Blood) and I would definately recommmend it IMHO.
I am stll interested in 3M but the plot thickens with regard to correct staking plan. From past experiance this often happens.
I ought to say that if anyone thinks about trying a service give a shout first; I have loads of first hand experiance, as do others by the sound of it. Mine is mainly in Horse backing (not laying) and Spreading:both markets.
Richard...

Hi Roberto,
As I say it does work. You are correct some of the odds are high but they suggest you only use 1/4 of your bank on any selection. So a 10/1 you'd back to £50 so if it wins you'll only lose £500 of your £2k bank.
On your second point they do occasionally email back to say there are non-runners so don't bet or level your bet out by backing it on betfair! I think off the top of my head this has happened 3 times over last 2 months.
Copied this from todays email from the service:- 'Proofing of our Selections
As an ongoing part of our reputation building we have started to proof our daily selections with independent professional services. These include WhichTipster, Realyline, Racing-Index and TipExchange. We have already worked our way to the top end of the profit tables on each of the league tables beating 3/4 of other online tipsters on profitability and return on investment.'


As I said it's a steady income with a large bank but difficult to make a fortune from it unless you've got a second mortgage and there's enough big money on betfair!
Yes York is good for racing. Although I'm peeved at the moment as the £4 residence tickets for Royal Ascot in York this year don't apply to me as although I live near the centre of York I do not fall within 2 miles of the race course!