Super informative post Richard, thanks.
In between trading and other work yesterday I checked back on Betbrain and oddsandbets and there were some tennis matches that offered around 4% for a while but as you correctly point out they quickly evaporated.
One thing that seems to have been touted a while ago is that the prices tend to drift shorter during the day (gee gees) up to immediately before the off, especially on the favourites. Perhaps there is some mileage in backing early and laying at the last moment.
I'll have a dekko and post some initial evaluation.
I agree that although these boards are widely read I do not think the sport betting community are that active here so whatever we discuss is unlikely to affect the market. Certainly, the objective of these boards is to share and help each other make a crust, IMHO.

Dave, a question about the 3M method, if I may ...

You said (in the other thread, I think) that you had had 6 winners out of 11 races at the weekend, and I'm wondering how this can fit in sensibly with a policy of staking as much as 10% of your betting-fund on each race?

If the strike-rate is only something in the region of 50% (not that one can really gauge this from 11 samples, I appreciate!), isn't 10% far too high to be safe?

Roberto, you are absolutely correct, tisking 10% of the bank on any one race is absurd risk management.
The racingtowin website advises 10% if I understand correctly.
I apply 30% of the bank per day and then proportion that across the total number of races. In some races there may be more than one selection and therefore I proportion the stake according to the odds, a simple spreadsheet is available on their website, it is easy enough to construct though.
To illustrate using yesterday as an example, 7 races where recommendations were made:
Assume betting bank is £1000.
Total available to bet for the day = 300 (1000 x 30%)
Total available per race = 42 (300 / 7) In practice I would round this up to 50.
In a race where 1 horse is recommended the stake is logically 50. Where there are 2 or even 3 then the stake is proportioned according to the odds to give equal return if any of the 3 recommendations win. Clearly if non win the loss is 50.

Hope that helps. If you want the spreadsheet, email or IM.

Following a post (by rgsharp, I think it was you Richard?) I have been playing a little with the hourly FTSE on Betfair. It seems (and it is very early days yet) that it is relatively easy to watch the charts and construct arbitrage situations where whatever the outcome you will win. It is effectively a "2 horse race", will the FTSE finish above or below a certain pre defined value?

Betfair run this bet every hour and therefore at the beginning of the hour some very high odds are available, as the witching approaches the odds get tight as clearly major moves are less likely.
Be warned it is VERY fast and you need to refresh the Betfair prices manually almost continually.
It is good fun and I made gains yesterday all be it on very minor "test" stakes.

Has anyone else tried this?

Thanks very much for your reply, Dave.

It does indeed.

Yes, I see. Interesting suggestion. It does mean that on a day with a lot of bets (like yesterday, maybe?) you're staking a fraction per race of what you would then stake on a day with only one race for the system? Hmmm ... I'll have a think about this. I might just cut their 10% down to 4% or something, and work on that basis for the moment.

Many thanks. I have everything here: I realised only after posting yesterday that I hadn't mentioned that I decided to buy the thing a couple of days ago, so I'm "with you all the way" (don't worry: you will shake me off before we get to Aintree).

I started off doing it "by the book" yesterday, from my bank of about £1400 (I decided I'd allocate £1500 to this but I took the purchase-price out of that as well!) and suddenly realised after the loss in the first race what inappropriate position-sizing it was! Still, we'll see ...

I've done the "daily" a few times, arbing between Betfair and BetOnMarkets, but it's not often that it works out well enough to be worth doing. It's a little bit fiddly that way. I think that when I last did it, "hourly" was not available - maybe a new thing? Will take a look.

You correct and that is a weakness in my staking method that I really need to think about, maybe. On stock/indices I use 3% (spread plus stop) risk on the open to calculate the price per point, I could contrive something along those lines. Anyway, as far as horses are concerned I am very risk averse.
You mention that you took out the purchase price, not quite following you there, I got a 30 day free trial and then pay just under £20 per week. We are talking about racing to win aren't we? Or are you a Brimadon client?

Regarding yesterday it was an unfortunate day, using my method I literally broke even.

Regarding arbs, you are right it is difficult to make any decent money and constructing the arb is far from easy. I am still playing with minimum stake to test.

BTW, how does one quote a message in the reply? My "options", "Quote message in reply" does not work.

Cheers
Dave

Yes ... I bought the book for £97 including a month's free trial, after which it's just under £20 per week as you say. (Maybe I didn't need to buy the book? Oh well ...). I am just doing 3M, not the other systems.

Anyway, I see we had a winner in the 2.00 today, with 2 more races still to go at the moment.

I'm (illogically, given our conversation) still staking 10% today, but might drop to 4% or 5% after today, I think.

I also broke even yesterday, give or take £1.

Ah ... I think you are clicking on "post reply" towards the left of the screen, to reply? Try clicking on the button in the lower right-hand corner of a post, which just says "reply" and see if that works. Otherwise it might be something to do with "settings" in which case I'm out of my depth (as so often).

Yep the repy button works, cheers!
[quote=Roberto]Yes ... I bought the book for £97 including a month's free trial, after which it's just under £20 per week as you say. (Maybe I didn't need to buy the book? Oh well ...). I am just doing 3M, not the other systems.
OK works the same, I subscribed for 30 days free and they give you the lay to win book after the first month paying, the 3M after the second! Works out the same. Anyway, I have paid for my subs out of hte wins.
As I write they have 2 races, 2 winners! Mmm, am I convinced? No, but less sceptical as the (winning) days go by!

Likewise. Certainly can't complain about 3 winners out of 3 today. My £1400 has turned into about £1690 today. I'm obviously over-staking grossly and got lucky (the problem is I don't know _how_ grossly! If all the results claimed on their website are to be believed, I might actually be safe cutting down a little bit less than I was intending to ... what do you think?).

My quote doesn't work like yours, no matter I really have no interest in playing.

Yep, a 3 out of 3. My scepticism is diminishing, hurts to say so!
Good luck if you are playing tomorrow, I consider weekends as non working so I will probably not.
I am going to contact RTW and ask about their staking plan as I too am confused how to apply it.
Probably not important when we are in a winning run but vital when we hit the inevitable loosing streak.
Will post answer
Dave