As soon as the goal was scored the odds on the draw went to 6-1

Thanks very much, Steve (I was out for dinner at the key moment) ... glad you made something on laying the draw, anyway.

I made more than that. Spurs never really looked like scoring apart from a few moments near the end. Due to this I covered the draw which I laid with a backing at 17-1 with about 1 min to go.

Steve.

Enjoyed the football thread, food for thought there?

I am sure I read that there are often football arbs between lays/bets and spreads on same markets, but like Roberto, I am a hopeless when it comes to football. Any ideas?
Richard...

Meanwhile, a quick 3M Method update for 26th April: a better day today. 2 races, 2 winners, 2.35 and 3.45 Punchestown. +4.2% of bank at 3% staking.

And I still throw caution to the wind and using 10% stakes, bank up 16(ish)%.

Fortunately there is still money there.

I like the debates on football arbs and look forward to more.

I have tried but it seems very difficult to get a return. Maybe I should try using different exchanges?

Any ideas?

Well don't look at me: I don't know any more. I don't even know that one. (Where's Peter when you need him?).

I was thinking today about what I asked about yesterday, and it struck me that possibly the reason it's recommended only for games televised live has nothing to do with the fact that a draw is any less or more likely under those circumstances, but simply because one can rely on healthy in-play liquidity on the exchanges if people are watching on TV, so it's safe to assume that there'll be a big change in the price for a draw after the first goal? "Obvious", you may say, but I've only just (sort of) realised it ...

Edit: another 3M Method update (27th April): no complaints about today, again. 2 races, 2 wins. Punchestown 2.35 (2 selections) and Lingfield 3.40 (2 selections), +6.7% in total for me, with 3% staking. Dave, you must have have cleaned up yesterday and today!

Yep, got a silly cheesy grin!

With 10% I am up 20 odd percent today. Today has more that paid for the months service so, yep me too, still satisfied.



Being a totally anti gambling man, er, isn't horse racing and SB stocks / indices gambling? Well, I am trialing another service that targets only handicaps and very high odds, normally at least 8. So far to date (5 days trialing only) they are showing a very healthy profit and Monday had a superb 3 x total stake return

So as not to be accused of advertising PM if you want the details or if you want me to PM you on a regular basis regarding performance.



Personally I like the idea as you can stake very low for the chance of some impressive returns.

IMHO horse-racing is undeniably gambling (which doesn't mean that a few people can't make a living from it, of course), whereas SB stocks/indices is not intrinsically any different from trading them any other way, if your trading plan proves that for whatever reason (usually avoiding CGT) SB is the most viable method for you. (For myself, it is for indices, but not for individual shares which I hardly ever trade anyway).

Interessant, mon ami. This calls for very realistic and careful money management, bien sur. As you doubtless know.

Will do; always interested in such matters. Thank you in advance.

Wow just read through this thread and it covers a lot of what I have been doing recently (and losing money at). Some comments:
1. There are more up to date results for the 3M method at http://www.racingtowin.info/newresults/index.php Too volatile for my liking but as has been pointed out, probably the wrong time of the year right now.
2. Have tried laying and backing soccer draws in-play many times since getting the ebook, never seem to make a profit overall as there are too many wild cards. For example I get out with a loss at the recommended time and then a goal is scored the next minute. Maybe it only happens to me.....
3. Lay2profit was mentioned. The first 3 days I joined they had 3 losers (winners) which lost me a tidy sum as these were 6/1 ish. then they had a rather spectacular fallout with their tipster who emailed (spammed) their mailing list. Having said that, if you've got the guts (I haven't) to stick with them they do appear to be in profit, but haven't got a long track record.
4. Another service you may have come across is Layers Paradise. Again a poor couple of months, and I'm not sure about their lay place service as prices are given as 1/5 SP which is much less than is ever available on the place market on Betfair, so losers actually cost punters a lot more. Did point this out but went unacknowledged, though Gary who runs LP does seem a genuine guy.
5. Been beta testing STW available at http://www.sportinglot.com which uses the Betfair API. Still in beta but should have some useful functions for trading when it's launched next month.
Having just about wiped out my bank laying this month (I'm just about to jump ship from the Bismark too) I think trading is the only way to recover, so will take a much closer look at what Peter has to offer..