Got a circular in the post this morning from a guy called Colin Davey, advertising his tipping service.

Anybody heard of him ?

Yes, bin it


Paul

Succinct, fair, and entirely correct. Paul is putting it very mildly indeed. Don't even think about doing anything else!

I actually found a critique of him on the internet and have already binned it.

So, is there such a thing as a really good value for money tipster ?

Henry Rix sounds good if you listen to Andy but you don't seem to think he's particularly good , Roberto.

Is there any reason to suppose someone 'gifted' in the prediction of Horse Racing results is more likely to be 'a good bet' than one who claims to be able to offer a similar facility in the matter of Trading the Financial Markets?

For the same reason we (generally) suspect anyone claiming to offer a sure-fire trading system and why they're not just trading it rather than selling it; why would it be any different to a racing tipster?

If you could predict the winner of the next 5 races at Kempton - would you sell the information or would you use it?

If I could do that, I would not be sitting here wasting my time churning out bull's manure.

Yes, Salty. There are tipsters whose tips have been making steady level-stake profits for years with almost never a losing month, all independently monitored and corroborated. It's as with "trading tipsters" in that 99% of the claims they make are untrue, and 99% of services lose money. The difference is that the mechanisms whereby they are independently monitored and corroborated are much better established in the case of horse-race tipsters than they are with trading services. The fx-review website and forum have the right idea, but they are very new and (with all respect to David, its proprietor) therefore still have some way to go before firmly establishing their credibility.

I happily concede that he may be having a tremendous run at the moment. There are so many tipsters (although not exactly hundreds as established as Henry Rix, I admit) that at any one time there are _always_ a handful having a tremendous run. I'm not so impressed by Henry Rix's long-term record, myself.

I used to get a lot of information from a friend from university who works for one of the newspapers as a racing writer, and this friend spends at least 20 minutes a day on the phone to Henry Rix every day (usually very early in the morning) and I was given a lot of "Henry's best private tips" over a 2-year period, and I did not find them profitable, myself. It's like so many other things we discuss on these boards: everyone has their own experience, and there are nearly as many opinions as punters, perhaps.

No, there's no good reason for supposing that, Tony. But the reality is that it's a bit easier to find out if you know how to do it and if you're willing to put in the effort and spend the money - and it's not at all a cheap thing to do! The requisite information from ultra-reliable resources is pretty expensive and not readily shared.

I would sell it for sure. I'd also use it as much as I could, but that would be a pretty limited source of income.

Here's the point: one of the key differences between racing tips and trading tips (and especially Forex tips) relates to the impact that the widespread use of the information has on the underlying market. I'll try to explain a little more ...

I've spoken admiringly on these boards before of a service called Isiris run by a chap called Kevin Booth, and I'm still a subscriber to that service myself. The way they operate is that when they have a really strong tip, they give subscribers a time to call back (usually either 2 or 3 minutes before the race in question) so that the information can't be circulated much, can't be sold on to other people, and therefore can't affect the odds much. They want their own small number of paying clients to get the information (for about £2,500 a year, if memory serves) and to profit from it (which we certainly do) but they don't want everyone to have it, because that would stop it from being profitable.

The same is not true of "information" about the EUR/USD because the size of the market is so different. So Epiphany Trade (whose tips are every bit as profitable as those of Isiris) probably don't mind so much if their subscribers circulate the trading information a bit, illicitly of course, on the quiet.

(And with "share tips", the more widely they're circulated, the better, I think?)

Regarding horse-racing, I know of two other services which are as reliable and consistent and profitable as Isiris (and actually nowhere near as expensive, although not exactly cheap either) but I'm not giving their names and contact details on a public board like this, because it took me a huge amount of effort (and expense) to discover who they are and to subscribe to their services! But if you're asking "Is there such a thing as a really reliable long-term tipster?", I promise you the answer is "yes".

I read that several times and it still hasn't gone in.

'Requisite information' - on whether a horse will win a race or not? Excepting pull-ups and the like, only the bloody horse knows that - and then, probably not before the last furlong...

Have you ever set off for a run and against all expectations (a) felt so damned good you've run faster /further than you planned (b) been so inexplicably s!hite/tired/bored that you've stopped after 5 minutes? Do you think Horses might feel like that too...

I appreciate a trainer will be closer than most to the current 'probabilities', but even then...

To pay money to someone who isn't even that close...

Why limited? If you had a bunch of certs - every day...


No! It's very similar - if not exactly the same.

The more money that goes on a nag - the shorter the price.

The more buying interest in a stock - the higher the price.

FX - you're kidding. Unless the 'interest' is phenomenally large....no chance.

Studied manipulation is called for in both cases.

Sorry, Tony ... I had no idea I was being so opaque!! I meant the "requisite information" to determine reliably which tipster is honest, decent, truthful and consistently profitable!

No. I like to lie down until that desire passes ...

Yes ... it's rather the opposite, isn't it? The share tipster wants his subscribers to buy the shares he's already bought ... "pump and dump"? More people buying = higher prices = more profits for people who buy. The racing tipster wants to sell the information to as many people as he can without the fact that he's selling it having _too_ adverse an effect on the price available. More people betting = _lower_ prices = smaller profits for people who buy. Opposite effect.

The tipster can't make that much using the information himself. He can do much better selling it. He has been barred by all the bookies, for sure. Hell, even _I_ have been barred by a bookie or three in my time. That really doesn't take much! They know they will lose to you pretty consistently if you are a shrewd punter and they can live without you. (Thank God for the betting exchanges).

Exactly my point.

Considering the fact that 99% of tipsters are diabolically bad at making selections which win in the long run, have any of you considered paying for their information and LAYING their selections on the Exchanges? I do that for handsome profit from the Derek Thompson tipping service!

However, I have also read about the following tipsters who recommend losers to be laid on the exchanges. Have any of you tried them and are they any good?

1. Isiris Losers Line
2. Racing-spread.com

If you have, can you also let me know over how long a period they've been making a profit/loss. I tried the Isiris losers at Aintree - but both came in! They assure me that 90% of their selections, which are favourites or second favourites do not win, but I want to know to what extent that is true.

Phil